Fund sentiment improved, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at highs [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief].

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, April 26:

Last night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,950 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,995 yuan/mt, a low of 19,920 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,970 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. The trading volume was 46,000 lots, and the open interest was 195,000 lots.

SMM Comment: Macro-wise, the domestic macro-positive sentiment remains unchanged. Yesterday, Trump indicated a potential reduction in tariffs on China, improving market sentiment and stimulating a rebound in the futures market. Fundamentally, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports aluminum prices, but suppliers are actively selling, leading to a pullback in spot premiums. In terms of aluminum consumption, the operating rate in the aluminum wire and cable sector is improving, while other sectors show a slight weakening. SMM learned that as the transition between peak and off-peak seasons approaches and the PV installation rush nears its end, downstream aluminum orders are expected to decline, limiting the potential for a significant price increase. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate.

Last night, the most-traded SHFE alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,830 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,858 yuan/mt, a low of 2,828 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,849 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The trading volume was 120,000 lots, and the open interest was 218,000 lots.

SMM Comment: This week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, new maintenance and production cut news emerged, leading to a mixed trend in operating capacity. Overall, the weekly operating capacity saw a slight rebound. As of Thursday, SMM statistics show that the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million mt/year, up 740,000 mt/year WoW. Due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the operating capacity of alumina has been below the theoretical demand for aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, tightening spot alumina supply. As a result, spot alumina prices have stopped falling, with a slight rebound in north China. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously track the progress of alumina maintenance capacity resumption, new capacity commissioning, and additional maintenance and production cut news. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]